Sports Then and Now

Roger Federer won the Australian Open in 2010.

Winning this year’s Australian Open conceivably paves the way for a great year for Roger Federer, allowing him to win his fifth Australian Open title in 12 years of hard-fought competition in Melbourne Park.

Except for 2010, Federer’s most productive years came when he started the year by winning the Australian Open.

Federer has won six Wimbledon titles, five U.S. Open Championships, four Australian Open titles and one French Open Championship.

Currently, Federer holds 16 career grand slam singles titles, a record for male tennis players.

During each of the past eight years, Federer has won at least one grand slam title, winning his first in 2003 and his last in 2010.  Both years, he won only one major.

In 2004, Federer won three slams. In 2006 and 2007 Federer again won three of the four majors.

The act of winning in Melbourne re-focused Federer on his dream to win a career calendar year grand slam, like Aussie Rod Laver in 1969.

As he nears 30, Federer once again seeks to capitalize on his newfound confidence and zeal for the game by winning again in Australia.

The Swiss wishes to advance his current World No. 2 ranking.

Federer hopes to enhance his position during the remainder of 2011 when he has fewer ranking points to defend while Rafael Nadal, the current World No. 1, has many.

Year 1: Roger Federer in the 2000 Australian Open

Roger Federer entered men’s professional tennis as the No. 1 ranked junior in 1998.

The Swiss possessed enormous talent. The world waited for Federer to break through to become the champion they expected.

But like all good things, the Swiss needed to season his talent.

Federer first participated in the Australian Open in 2000, ranked World No. 66, after failing to qualify the previous year.

That year, the No. 1 seed at the Australian Open was Andre Agassi who did, in fact, win that year.

Federer entered unseeded in Melbourne in 2000.

In the first round, the Swiss defeated American Michael Chang 6-4, 6-4, 7-6.

Jan Kroslak of Slovakia was Federer’s opponent in the second round. The Swiss won that match 7-6, 6-2, 6-3.

In the third round, Federer faced Arnaud Clement, ranked World No. 49 at the time.

Federer lost that match to the Frenchman 6-1, 6-4, 6-3, ending his run at the Australian Open in his first year of competition down under.

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Caroline Wozniacki is the new World No. 1 in womens tennis.

It is redundant to repeat that the women’s field in Melbourne is wide open.  This is because the 2010 defending Australian Open Champion Serena Williams is not competing,

The media has already taken a big bite out of the No. 1 seed, Caroline Wozniacki, finding her lacking in seasoning, flavor and a coup d’etat at any major.

Previously, the pundits did the same thing to Jelena Jankovic and Dinara Safina, hounding these ladies, driving them out of range of reaching that ranking again.

Wozniacki, however, is not quite as fragile or as susceptible to harsh, self-centered commentator remarks. Of course, the No. 1 seed wants to capture this title and will do everything in her power to win her first slam.

What everyone seems to overlook is that Wozniacki is 20 years old and her game is still evolving. Just as Nadal starting winning on one surface then improved his game to win on all surfaces over time––Wozniacki has not yet perfected her game.

The No. 1 seed is certainly not the favorite to win.  Belgians Kim Clijsters and Justine Henin are.

Most feel Venus Williams has not played enough good tennis in preparation for the Australian Open to win. Maria Sharapova, they feel, is also not in top form and perhaps never will be again.

Many look at Samantha Stosur to break through at home and win her first major. That would, indeed, please the natives.

In order for Wozniacki to win, she would have to play perfect tennis for two weeks, serving well plus out-hustling any player standing across the net.  The question is––can Wozniacki do it?

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No. 5: Robin Soderling

Swede Robin Soderling is "red hot" coming into the 2011 Australian Open.

The Swede made a name for himself by pulling off the biggest upset in the history of men’s tennis, in many people’s estimation.

This occurred when Soderling dismissed Rafael Nadal in the fourth round of the French Open in 2009.

It stunned Nadal and his fans when this upstart from Sweden stopped Nadal from winning his fifth consecutive French Open title.

Based on his play at the French and subsequent tournaments, Soderling rose into the men’s top ten at the end of 2009 and has remained there since that time.

Currently ranked world No. 4, Soderling will be seeded No. 4 as the 2011 Australian Open gets underway on January 17th. The odds on his winning have risen to 20-1.

But the Swede has never done well at the Australian Open.  In fact, he has never progressed beyond the second round.

Much of this has to do with the number of serious injuries Soderling has endured over the years since he broke into the men’s tour.

Even when he played, however, Soderling was plagued with nagging shoulder and knee problems.  This kept the Swede from playing his best. The lack of complete health lasted through 2008.

In 2009, Soderling began to find success and score victories on tour.

Even though he lost early to an unseeded Marcos Baghdatis at the 2009 Australian Open, Soderling made it to the finals of the French Open where he lost to Roger Federer.

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The 2011 Australian Open gets underway on Monday, January 17 in Melbourne

The Australian Open begins on Monday, Jan. 17, in Melbourne, Australia.

The draw for the first Grand Slam of the season will not be held until Friday, Jan. 14.

Until that time, no one will know who they will be facing in the first round or which potential opponents might be waiting down the road.

According to oddsmakers, Rafael Nadal is slightly favored to win the title over Roger Federer.

So what do these betting gurus know?

They know about past patterns of behavior and predictable outcomes based on certain incontrovertible factors. They know about odds of winning.

“Beating the odds” means winding up with an unexpected outcome.

This is the crux of betting—figuring out which players may beat the odds.

Nothing is a given, although based on recent history it is not unreasonable to expect either Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal to win the championship in Melbourne.

It is almost inevitable that one of them will be in the final.

But that did not happen in 2008, and who is to say that 2011 could not repeat that aberration?

According to this author’s research, following are the 10 players with the best shot at winning in Melbourne…

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