2010 Australian Open Review: For Roger Federer – Can 17 Be Far Behind?
Serena Williams topped Justine Henin in a great three set match.
Those of us who deliberately sabotaged our sleep patterns to watch the Australian Open these past two weeks found we arrived almost exactly where we expected since the draws were announced. That is not to say that we did not experience some thrilling matches as counterpunchers reigned early and aggressors stayed late.
We rather expected one of the “unretired” Belgians to survive that tough third quarter of the women’s draw to face Serena Williams in the final. That it was Justine Henin who charged to the finish line made the women’s championship match that much more intriguing because the rivalry between the sturdy American and the miniature French woman is steeped in silent, stoney resentment.
Serena won the championship in three tough sets 6-4, 3-6, 6-2. But we expect the rivalry to blossom once again, especially as the tour heads into the clay season and spills onto the storied grounds of Stade Roland Garros where the Belgian will surely shine once again.
But more so –– we expected Roger Federer to be standing on one side of the net during the men’s final. Oh, yes, there was talk about the recent dominance of Nikolay Davydenko and the quiet resurgence of Novak Djokovic. That is not to discount the sultry passion of the other Spaniard, Fernando, the body, Verdasco or the raw athleticism of Jo Wilfried Tsonga whose smile lights up the world.
Ultimately, however, Federer in a five set major is going to make it to the final –– consult the oddsmakers.
Roger Federer defeated Andy Murray in a Grand Slam final for the second time.
So the Swiss did on Sunday with the lanky Scott Andy Murray facing him in the championship match. Fitting. Murray had a splendid Australian Open Tournament for a change. This time around, he was the hot player who dismissed his opponents and sent them packing.
He did so to challenger Marin Cilic who made his presence known and felt all the way to the semifinals. Murray also dismissed the defending champion Rafael Nadal whose suspect knees let him down again.
As Federer polished off Tsonga in the semifinals on Friday, he appeared to issue a challenge to the younger Murray –– catch me if you can –– but I don’t think you will.
The truckload of British journalists and tabloid reporters pounced on the perceived “gamesmanship” posture of the Swiss No. 1, treating it as a slap in the face with a single glove. Had Federer truly thrown down the gauntlet? Of course he had.
Regardless the intent –– the target was clear. Murray had every intention of bringing Federer and his confident encampment to their knees. But this media turmoil only served to add to the mounting pressure on the shoulders of the 22-year-old Scot. It proved to be just what Murray did not need but had to face if he was going to win this Australian Open tournament.
Roger Federer had every intention of making the burden too heavy for the Scot to bear. The perfect advantage of the reigning No. 1 –– is making the opposition doubt itself. It encourages tempered resistance instead of all out war. It tempts testing the water instead of jumping into the match head on.
Murray was frustrated throughout the match with Federer.
By making Murray cautious, the Scot played right into Federer’s game plan. As the dictator of pace and placement, nothing or no one could touch the mighty Swiss. Even as the Scot retreated, he knew better. But Murray could not overcome his natural instincts and he seldom ventured outside his comfort zone.
Naturally, Roger Federer won in straight sets 6-3, 6-4, 7-6, tested but never bested. In the end Murray raised his level of assault in the third and final set –– but it was too little, too late. This made his defeat even more bitter because Murray rediscovered that he had to play beyond his normal boundaries to take down Federer.
Murray did so against Nadal; but Nadal is so nakedly aggressive that the tactics to win against him are more immediately apparent. With Federer –– it is different because the Swiss can lull you into that zone where you believe you can fly with him. Too late, you realize that you cannot as he revs up into another gear that you don’t possess. The problem for Murray is that sometimes the Scot’s normal game is enough in three set matches.
That may hold true post 2008 –– but never in five-set majors. If Federer seizes that first set, chances are he will relax, seeing and feeling the ball better as the match progresses. In the two sets that Federer lost –– both first sets against Russians Igor Andreev in the first round and Nikolay Davydenko in the quarterfinals –– once Federer won the second set and found his rhythm and confidence, he became unbeatable.
Federer claimed his 16th Grand Slam title in Melbourne.
As the dust settles after the Australian Open concludes both Roger Federer at age 28 and Serena Williams also at age 28 will retain their No. 1 rankings. On the men’s side, Nadal will fall from No. 2 to No. 4. Novak Djokovic will rise to No. 2 and Andy Murray to No. 3. Interesting to say the least as those beneath Federer continue to slug it out tournament by tournament.
Slam number 17 awaits Federer. The question of when it will arrive should soon dominate the media and consume tennis blogs across the Web.
But Roger will begin his move toward another Pete Sampras record –– total weeks at No. 1. Sampras reigns with 286 weeks at No. 1. Roger is third with 268 weeks. That makes it just 18 short weeks to match the American. Who will lay odds that Federer will not surpass Sampras again?
On the women’s side Dinara Safina will retain the No. 2 spot with Caroline Wozniacki taking over No. 3 , followed by Svetlana Kuznetsova at No. 4 and Venus Williams at No. 5.
Henin who was runner-up at the 2010 Australian Open still needs to play one more WTA tournament before she can be ranked. Li Na who played Serena Williams so tough in the semis will move into the No. 10 spot for the first time.
As is their custom, neither champion will rush back into competition. Both are content to play the minimum required, showing up for the next compulsory tournament, biding their time until the next major presents itself –– along with all the competitors who wish to dethrone them and take over that elusive No. 1 mantle.
Very interesting! You saw the men's final the way I did (I posted a similar article here earlier today). Though Marianne seemed to see it more of a match of domination by Roger,where Andy never could get his footing, I saw it more as Andy coming out, as he had against Nadal, guns blazing, because that tactic is obvious against Nadal, while I think Andy thinks he can hang with, and out tactic Roger to his peril.
One question for you. Andre Agassi, then Pete Sampras, and now a whole host of folks have announced that the era of Roger and Rafa is coming to a close.
I don't see it that way. I still see Roger and Rafa as the major Slam winners for some time to come, with occasional give-aways to the likes of Delpo, Cilic, and even Murray. let's say Rafa wins the French. I would bet that either Roger or Rafa would win Wimbledon. On hard courts, I see Delpo, Murray, Cilic, Tsonga, Djokovic, a whole host of contenders.
The main reason I don't think the era of Roger nor Rafa is over is that both of those men know how to manage a tournament, they know how to face the big points and the big moments. All the younger guys have big game, no doubt about it. But they have problems with managing to stay fresh through 7 games in the best of five format. Cilic had too many 5-setters, likewise Tsonga couldn't come back after finishing off Djokovic.
Do you see it that way?
It's an incredible time for men's (and ladies now that the Belgians are back) tennis. I certainly think that the top ten players are all Slam contenders on paper.
They are far from finished – Roger, as he suggested to Andy and the media, knows how to win these big tournaments! He is primo shape and still loves to play. Rafa, assuming the knees hold out – will be back during the clay season, maybe he will survive on grass. I think hard courts are just too much for his knees – but Rafa is only 22 and he also knows what it takes to win – he takes it to Federer more than any other player on the big stages…it is definitely a great time in tennis for both the men and the women!!
Great post-tournament recap!!
To answer the question posed in the headline: NO, 17 cannot be too far behind. Neither can 18-22, for that matter. It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that Roger can win 2 more Slams this year, and if someone does him the favor of taking out Rafa, he could actually get that elusive calendar Grand Slam.
I don't EXPECT that, with all of the big guns who do so well on hard courts – but he DID just win Oz, didn't he??
Rafa, I think, is toast. Creaky knees and a tough playing style are combining to limit his future upside. He might actually do well to pull a Clijsters/Henin and get away from tennis entirely for a year or more. It might actually extend his career.
Fantastic to have you saddle, my friend!
I think the way Roger went through this tournament speaks volumes. He really is far from finished. I believe he will capture another crown – maybe even the French again if Rafa does not make it all the way back – but certainly Wimbledon is within his grasp as is the U.S. Open – I am holding out for 20!! Thanks for commenting here!!
I don't see *too* much difference in our views of how the final went. I think Andy did intend to come out aggressive but wasn't expecting Roger to play such an accurate, powerful and, most of all, patient game.
Of course if you can't make any headway, you fall back on what has succeeded in the past rather than stick with your game plan. He played into Roger's hands.
I have to say, though, that Roger played some of the best tennis he's produced in years…I doubt, even if Andy had got the third set, that he'd have won the match unless Roger lost confidence. And that simply wasn't going to happen yesterday.
I fear for Rafa's knees, as Leroy does. I'm not struggling to see him make a constant assault on all the Slams, which will leave the door open for the new guys to break in.
We'll know more in a month – it does at least look a different problem from the tendinitis. Fingers crossed. He brings a certain something to tennis that *none* of the others has!
Yes it is best that Rafa come back strong – it gives balance to the field but Rafa has his work cut out for him…he is, however, only 22 or 23 – many years to recoup and come back! Maybe surgery even to help those creaky knees…
Onto the U.S. hardcourts – Indian Wells and Miami!
in sports in general, and in tennis in particular, the margin between winning and losing is often very slim. federer could have lost against davy, and he could have lost against andreev. if he had, everyone would be talking about the end of his career now, instead of praising him for his brilliant perfomance. tactically, he played an almost flawless game against murray, and i've rarely seen his backhand in a better shape. i did not particularly like his serve and his volley during the AO2010. i think he's got a good chance to keep winning grand slams, but it's not going to get any easier, there's now like 6 players than can challenge him on a normal day. i still give roger and rafa a slight edge over other players when it comes to psychological strength and game prowess, and i hope to see their rivalry renewed.
I really don't like people swinging from one extreme to the other, and already some writers are speculating for federer to win every GS this year. ridiculous. two weeks ago the same writers gave him no chance of winning the AO because of his performance against andreev.
btw, pretty good article. i don't agree with the statement that federer tried to heap more pressure upon murray. there was no gauntlet. he's just outspoken and honest, and if you look at what he's saying he's pretty much correct with everything. also, there was nothing murray did not know already. federer has a lot of respect for murray and he stated that repeatedly. the enemity is mostly spawned by boulevard type media – as they have tried (but not really succeeded) with rafa and roger as well.
being swiss, i have the possibility to follow his interviews in his native language as well, and he's stating almost the same things (which would not be necessary if he just did it in order to raise pressure for murray) – and they just sound like facts from someone that knows the game and has been around in a lot of these important matches.
That is what the media does – swing with the prevailing wind and promote controversy! It is all part of the game. It is never logical – as you point out! I think Federer was being forthright – but I also think it was gamesmanship – Roger is enjoying the game again – all its ins and outs – in my opinion – and yes, the commentators were hilarious during the two weeks!! Sometimes I just have to mute them!! Thanks so much for your great comments – a pleasure!
great perspective. I will be putting a bet on the fed express to beat raphael nadal later today at ATP Madrid.
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