Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal resume competition in Indian Wells.

Finally play gets underway this week for the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells with a lineup that includes almost all the usual suspects.  Who will survive the test of time and layoffs to take the title this year?  That is the question lingering on everyone’s lips.

Roger Federer’s Quarter

There are some very intriguing match-ups possible in Federer’s quarter of the draw including a potential 3rd round clash with the No. 27 seed Marcos Baghdatis.  The Cypriot who found his way out of the deep freeze and into the semifinals at Dubai is well on his way to a legitimate comeback after spending much of 2009 on the injured reserve list.

Seeded players hoping to advance to week two of the tournament include Tommy Robredo, seeded No. 18 and the always dangerous Radek Stepanek who has been known to throw wrenches into the plans of many a higher seeded player.  Stepanek lives to wreak havoc with the draw and could meet Federer in the 4th round.

The ever entertaining Gael Monfils, seeded No. 12 faces a potential matchup with fellow countryman Richard Gasquet, should Gasquet overcome Simon Greul in his opener.  While David Nalbandian, who received a wild-card into this tournament will be fully tested by Jurgen Melzer who also made it to the semifinals in Dubai.

Dark Horse contender at Indian Wells, Marcos Baghdatis

No one can be happy to see the Serb Janko Tipsarevic waiting in his corner and that is exactly what the No. 7 seed Andy Roddick faces as he looks at a potential 3rd round match with the unpredictable and enigmatic Serb.

There are many “wounded” players coming back at Indian Wells like Federer, Nalbandian and Roddick.  It is hard to predict what their playing status might be after a long lay-off in Federer’s case or after enduring recent struggles like Nalbandian who was called into action during Argentina’s Davis Cup tie against Sweden as he tried to recover from hip surgery.

Still it is difficult to go against the No. 1 ranked player in the world.  So, look for Federer to survive his quarterfinal match up.  He loves to make it to at least the semifinals.

Quarterfinal Winner: Federer

Darkhorse: Baghdatis

Andy Murray’s Quarter

As Andy Murray surveyed the potential match-ups in his quarter of the draw he must have come across some names that caused him concern.  His first potential seeded opponent would be Russian Igor Andreev, seeded No. 32 at Indian Wells.  Although the two have never met on the ATP tour, Andreev has some real weapons that could conceivably trouble the young Scot –– first and foremost his serve.

Should Murray survive the 3rd round matchup with Andreev, his next opponent might be either Ivo Karlovic or No. 13 seed David Ferrer fresh off his victory in Acapulco.  Murray defeated Karlovic at Indian Wells in 2008 7-6, 6-7, 6-3.

But It is not easy to defeat the hard serving Karlovic and no one wishes to see him across the net, especially if you are struggling on your serve that day.  Murray, however, holds the head to head with the Croat at 3-0 and that must provide some comfort.

The last time Murray met Ferrer was in 2006 where they split –– Ferrer winning on clay and Murray winning on hard courts.  It is hard to imagine that Murray will not hold a significant edge on the hard courts at Indian Wells.

Andy Murray is ready to resume action at Indian Wells.

The bottom half of Murray’s quarter includes seeded player No. 13 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who struggled during Davis Cup play and had to retire in his final dead rubber match.

Other potential stumbling blocks could be Albert Montanes, seeded 24 and No. 28 Feliciano Lopez who has been dealing with his own injuries of late. There are also some unseeded surprises that might upset the top seeds at any stage including Nicolas Almagro, James Blake, and Michael Llodra.

But the player most expect to make it to the quarterfinals along with No. 4 seed Murray is Robin Soderling, No. 6 in the draw at Indian Wells.  If Soderling has his game intact, he should meet Murray in the quarterfinal match to determine who will advance to conceivably meet Federer in the semifinals.

Quarterfinal winner: Murray

Darkhorse: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Rafael Nadal’s Quarter

Nothing can be easy for the Spaniard returning again from sore knees on fast American hard courts.  It does not help his cause any that potentially he could face Julien Benneteau, Sam Querry, John Isner, Fernando Verdasco, Tomas Berdych, Viktor Troicki or Nikolay Davydenko in his section of the draw.

All of these players have the game to make Nadal’s task to repeat as champion difficult and especially since the Spaniard is coming back after a long lay-off when he could not focus on his game.

Also lurking in his quarter are Mario Ancic back in action again and Ernest Gulbis who just won his first singles title at Delray Beach.

But expect Nadal to make it through to the fourth round where potentially he faces either red-hot American player John Isner or Sam Querry –– both surviving the dusty clay, hopefully to shine once again on the hard courts in California.

Davydenko loves the American hard courts.

Assuming that Davydenko is not injured going into this event, expect the Russian to make it through to the quarterfinal match where he would face either Nadal or one of the giant Americans.

At this stage in his career expect the match experience of Nadal to allow him to overcome the new top-ranked U.S. players because Nadal knows what it takes to win against hard-hitting and tough serving opponents under pressure.  The quarterfinal will feature Nadal versus Davydenko.

Quarterfinal winner: Davydenko

Darkhorse: John Isner

Novak Djokovic’s Quarter

It has to be said from the offset that the No. 2 seed Djokovic seems to enjoy the easiest path to the quarterfinals.  The first potential seeded player the Serb meets is Philipp Kohlschreiber of Germany.

Djokovic defeated Kohlschreiber in 2008 in the round of 32 at Indian Wells 6-3, 6-2 but lost to the German on the clay at Roland Garros in 2009.  It looks like a good win for the Serb as Kohlschreiber hasn’t been playing his best of late.

Gilles Simon and Ivan Ljubicic also are potential 4th round match-ups for Djokovic but Simon has not found his game this year and the Serb recently defeated Ljubicic in Dubai when it looked to all the world that Djokovic was going to lose down a set and a break to the Croat.

There are some top-ranked players that might present Marin Cilic, the other top seed in this quarter, trouble on his way to the quarterfinals.  Juan Monaco, Juan Carlos Ferrero and even Thomas Bellucci are high seeds but these players traditionally make their best inroads and have their best results on clay.

Cilic should make his way through to meet Djokovic in the quarterfinals.  In their head to head meetings, Djokovic reigns supreme with a 4-0 record against the Croat.

Marin Cilic is one of the hottest players on tour going into Indian Wells.

All their matches have been on hard courts, the most recent in Beijing in 2009 when the Serb won 6-2, 7-6. But Cilic is now ranked in the top 10 and has been impressive in 2010 winning titles in Chennai and Zagreb and advancing to the semifinals of the Australian Open, defeating Juan Martin del Potro and Andy Roddick before falling to Andy Murray.  He is playing with more zeal and more confidence than we have seen him play in the past.

The match of the quarter should be the one with Djokovic facing Cilic for a spot in the semifinals.  They are both winning at this time of the year when most of the top players are injured and out of action.

Quarterfinal Winner: Cilic

Darkhorse: Ivan Ljubicic

Most tennis fans clamor for another contest between Federer and Nadal.  The two have never faced each other in a final at Indian Wells.  It would be magnificent to see such a match-up again.  But, that not going to happen.  Neither player is match tough and ready for the stiff competition they will face in the California desert.

Finalists: Murray vs. Cilic.

Winner: Murray.

The U.S. hard court swing is underway this week as players compete at the ATP Masters Series Tennis Tournament in the desert at Indian Wells followed by another sunny outing at the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami.

Last year’s champion at Indian Wells, Rafael Nadal, has been sidelined with injuries since the Australian Open.  No. 1 seed Roger Federer has also been absent from play since the Australian Open with a lung infection.

As the top players vie once again for supremacy, look for the rankings race to heat up as the lull is set aside and the summer season beckons.

The Top 10

1. Novak Djokovic (Last Power Ranking: OLI; ATP Ranking: 2)

Last Four Tournaments: Dubai [Winner], Rotterdam [Semifinalist], 2010 Australian Open [Quarterfinalist], ATP WTF London [RR 2-1].  Power Ranking Points: 382

Novak Djokovic takes the victory in Dubai from Mikhail Youzhny

Taking over the top spot this week is the Serb Djokovic who just repeated as the champion in Dubai overcoming Mikhail Youzhny in the final.  Even though Djokovic was not playing his best tennis, he found a way to win this event and cement his No. 2 status on the ATP tour.

This weekend Djokovic played Davis Cup for the Serbs against the U.S. and even though the U.S. team came back to win the doubles match, ultimately the Serbs prevailed thanks in part to Djokovic’s dual wins in singles.

Last year at Indian Wells Djokovic lost in the quarterfinals to American Andy Roddick 6-3, 6-2.  This year as the No. 2 seed, Djokovic will expect to do much better.  Much will depend upon the draw which is to be released shortly.   The current state of tennis mastery will become much clearer once the two ATP hard court Master Series events are concluded at Indian Wells and Miami.

2. Roger Federer (Last Power Ranking: 2; ATP Ranking: 1)

Last Four Tournaments: Australian Open [Winner]; Doha [Semifinalist]; London [Semifinalist]; Paris [R64]
 Power Ranking Points: 371

Federer is scheduled to play his first tournament since winning the 2010 Australian Open. Sidelined with a lung infection that kept him out of Dubai, the outing at Indian Wells should hopefully reawaken the skills of the tennis giant. Certainly his fans are anxious to see the Swiss return once again to the courts.

It would be hard to imagine that Federer will be in peak performance mode after the long lay off and the subsequent illness; but, just to see him play again should suffice.

Also returning to play is Rafael Nadal and everyone will be focused on the two of them until they lose. Nadal is the defending champion and Federer went out  at Indian Wells in 2009 during the semifinals, losing to Andy Murray.

Unlike last year when Federer was recovering from a back injury, this year hopefully his conditioning will not be as severely compromised.  Regardless, it will be good to see the Swiss competing again.

3. David Ferrer (Last Power Ranking: NR; ATP Ranking: 16)

Last Four Tournaments: Acapulco [Winner], Buenos Aires [Finalist]; South Africa [Semifinalist]; Australian Open [R64].
 Power Ranking Points: 326

David Ferrer defeats Stanislav Wawrinka to secure win for Spain in Davis Cup action.

The fiery Spaniard David Ferrer is back after ending his friend and fellow countryman Juan Carlos Ferrero’s 14-match winning streak on clay. Ferrer hung on to win in Acapulco during a hard fought contest winning 6-3, 3-6, 6-1.

Ferrer clung doggedly to the lead, as is his custom, and finally secured another ATP title to add to his collection now sitting at eight. Ferrer would like to regain his top 10 ATP status –– a ranking he held as recently as 2008.

Ferrer played Davis Cup this past weekend against the Swiss and helped his teammates secure another win for Spain. Unfortunately for fans neither Federer nor Nadal played in this tie.

Next up for the Spaniard is Indian Wells where he hopes to build upon his win at Acapulco and begin his climb back up the rankings ladder.

4. Juan Carlos Ferrero (Last Power Ranking: 4; ATP Ranking: 14)

Last Four Tournaments: Acapulco [Finalist], Buenos Aires [Winner]; Costa Do Sauipe [Winner]; Australian Open [R128].
 Power Ranking Points: 298

David Ferrer ended Ferrero’s 14-match winning streak on clay during the final in Acapulco 6-3, 3-6, 6-1.  The week before in Buenos Aires, Ferrero had come away the winner.

It is not an exaggeration to state that Ferrero had been red hot during the Latin American clay court swing, winning two of the three tournaments he entered.  These results have added to his staying power in the top five of our Power Rankings and his rise into the top 20 in the ATP rankings.

Ferrero was scheduled to play for Spain during their Davis Cup tie with Switzerland but he had to withdraw. Hopefully, he will regain his edge in time to compete well during the ATP Masters Series event at Indian Wells that starts Monday.

5. Andy Murray (Last Power Ranking: 5;  ATP Ranking: 4)

Last Four Tournaments: Dubai [R2], Australian Open [Finalist]; London [RR]; Paris [R16].
 Power Ranking Points: 255

Andy Murray in action at Dubai.

Murray lost earlier than most expected or desired in Dubai.  He was upset by Janko Tipsarevic in a two and one-half hour contest with the Serb finally prevailing as he loves to do when the spotlight is the brightest.

Murray who lost to Federer in the finals of the 2010 Australian Open hoped to recover some fitness and form in Dubai but will now wait until Indian Wells to resume his game.  He enters Dubai as the No. 4 seed assuming both Federer and Nadal resume their play and their seedings.

Last year Murray made it to the finals of Indian Wells, losing to eventual champion Rafael Nadal.  Murray is hoping to equal or surpass his 2009 results in the upcoming tournament.

6. Marin Cilic  (Last Power Ranking: 7; ATP Ranking: 9)

Last Four Tournaments: Dubai [Quarterfinalist], Zagreb [Winner]; Australian Open [Semifinalist]; Chennai [Winner].
 Power Ranking Points: 243

Cilic came into Dubai on a red-hot winning streak with a win in Zagreb and a semifinal appearance at the 2010 Australian Open. Finally it seemed the Croat with so much promise was about to take another step forward. Unfortunately he ran into a player working on a hot streak of his own as Austrian Juergen Melzer defeated him 7-6, 7-5 to earn a spot in the semifinals.

Cilic will be seeded in the top 10 at Indian Wells and hopefully he can resume his climb toward the top 5.  The competition to break through in the California desert will be very stiff.  But the Croat has all the weapons to overtake the best.

7. Mikhail Youzhny (Last Power Ranking: OLI; ATP Ranking: 13)

Last Four Tournaments: Dubai [Finalist], Rotterdam [Finalist], 2010 Australian Open [R32], Doha [R32]. Power Ranking Points: 240

Mikhail Youzhny battles during final in Dubai against Djokovic.

Youzhny thrives during the tournament in Dubai and traditionally does well there. He came back to make it a match against Djokovic but lost in the final taking it to 3 sets, 7-5, 5-7, 6-3.

Earlier in the season he suffered an injury that forced him to retire against Soderling in Rotterdam; but he has managed to find his way back into form in time for the tournament in Dubai and for Davis Cup play as the Russians battled players from India, ultimately prevailing.

Youzhny has a superb backhand and he hits the ball flat with much power on the rise.  Fighting periodic injury, his progress has often been sidetracked by protracted time off the court.  Back again in the top 20, Youzhny is a player no one likes to face in the draw because he is capable of defeating anybody when his game is on.

8. Sam Querrey (Last Power Ranking: 1; ATP Ranking: 22)

Last Four Tournaments: Acapulco [R1], Memphis [Winner]; San Jose [Semifinalist]; Australian Open [R128].
 Power Ranking Points: 191

After winning his first title of the season in Memphis, Sam Querry journeyed to Acapulco to practice on the clay in singles and doubles with his new partner John Isner.

Querry didn’t fare too well in either, discipline, losing in the first round in both.  He was gearing up for Davis Cup with Serbia –– noting a true changing of the guard for U.S. Davis Cup competition.  Vanguards Andy Roddick and James Blake not in the mix for this outing, the U.S. first-timers faced a true test of their newly honed skills.

Ranked No. 1 in our last Power Ranking, Querry stumbled a bit on the clay, as is customary for U.S. participants.  The Americans were outmanned in their contest with Serbia but learned a great deal about the nature of Davis Cup competition.  It definitely put what Andy Roddick, James Blake and the Bryan Brothers accomplished throughout the years in perspective.

This coming week Querry is scheduled to compete at Indian Wells on U.S. hard courts where Querry can expect his game to serve him better than on Serbian clay.

9. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga  (Last Power Ranking: 10;  ATP Ranking: 11)

Last Four Tournaments: Dubai [R2], Marseille [Semifinalist]; Australian Open [Semifinalist]; Paris [Quarterfinalist].
 Power Ranking Points: 184

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga during Davis Cup play.

Entering Dubai as a wild card, Tsonga, seeded No. 5, fell to a newly inspired Ivan Ljubicic 7-5, 6-3. Throughout the early stages of the season, Tsonga continues to exhibit moments of brilliant tennis.  But he never seems to utilize his talents all the way through an event.

Assisting France in their defeat of Germany in Davis Cup play, Tsonga will head into Indian Wells hoping to make his way back into the ATP top 10.

10. John Isner (Last Power Ranking: 3;  ATP Ranking: 20)

Last Four Tournaments: Acapulco [R1], Memphis [Finalist]; Australian Open [R16]; Auckland [Winner].
 Power Ranking Points: 161

Like Querry, his playing partner in doubles, John Isner took the Latin American route this past week instead of heading off to Dubai where his game might have garnered better results.  Also like Querry, Isner lost in the first round on clay.

The two stayed on to practice in anticipation of meeting Serbia on clay during their Davis Cup match this past weekend.  The U.S. lost their two opening singles matches against the Serbs.  When Mike Bryan came down with food poisoning, Isner stepped in to play doubles with Bob Bryan to keep the U.S. hopes alive by winning the doubles match.

Playing doubles has vastly improved Isner’s mobility on the court and strengthened his overall game.  With his serve already registered as a lethal weapon, the extra tall American has improved as much or more than any player on tour.

As Isner heads off to play again on the hard courts at Indian Wells, expect this American to find his way into the top ten by the end of the year as he dedicates himself to improving and constructing an all around game.

Outside Looking In

Nikolay Davydenko (Last Power Ranking: 6; ATP Ranking: 6)

Last Four Tournaments: Dubai [R2], Rotterdam [Semifinalist]; Australian Open [Quarterfinalist]; Doha [Winner].
 Power Ranking Points: 155

Davydenko suffered with wrist injury that eventually made him withdraw from his match with German journeyman Michael Berrer after losing the opening set 6-3 at the Barclays Tennis Championship in Dubai.

Not scheduled to participate in Russia’s Davis Cup tie with India, Davydenko will be hoping to recover from his injury soon –– in time to do well as the ATP Masters Series Tournament this week in Indian Wells where he will be seeded No. 5 with Juan Martin del Potro’s withdrawal from the event.

We have yet to see the promise of Davydenko’s impressive winning streak at the end of 2009 and early in 2010.  The 3-set format should prove beneficial to the Russian, assuming he has recovered from his wrist injury.

Andy Roddick  (Last Power Ranking: 9; ATP Ranking #8)

Last Four Tournaments: Memphis [Quarterfinalist]; San Jose [Finalist]; Australian Open [Quarterfinalist]; Brisbane [Winner]
 Power Ranking Points: 155

It seemed very strange to watch the U.S. Davis Cup team and not see American Andy Roddick leading the way for the U.S. team.  But he was absent –– as was James Blake.

Like many others, Roddick withdrew from Dubai citing injury.  We shall await his return upon the American hard courts  starting at Indian Wells.  It should reveal his current playing condition.   We all wonder if Roddick can repeat his stellar play of last season through Wimbledon.

Fernando Gonzalez (Last Power Ranking: NR; ATP Ranking: 10)

Last Four Tournaments: Acapulco [Semifinalist]; Santiago [Semifinalist]; Australian Open [R16]; Paris [R16].
 Power Ranking Points: 144

Playing Davis Cup for Chile, Gonzalez withdraws from Indian Wells.

As Chile recovers from a devastating earthquake, Gonzalez has withdrawn from Indian Wells in an attempt to help his country recover from the losses the people have endured.

Because of the devastation, Chile’s Davis Cup tie with Israel has been set back a day.  Gonzalez is engaged in this match for his country.  Chile led 2-1 going into the Monday’s rounds.

Robin Soderling (Last Power Ranking: 8; ATP Ranking: 7)

Last Four Tournaments: Marseille [Quarterfinalist]; Rotterdam [Winner]; Australian Open [R128]; Chennai [R32]
 Power Ranking Points: 142

Suffering from a right forearm injury, Soderling rested his injured wing in preparation for Davis Cup play and for the ATP Masters Series tournament in Indian Wells.

The Swede had not played a tournament since Marseille as he led the charge against Argentina in their Davis Cup tie playing both singles and doubles.  With Nalbandian making a surprise appearance to lead Argentina back into the lead, Sweden and Soderling had a real fight on their hands, eventually falling to Argentina.

Having battled his way into the top 10 in the ATP rankings, Soderling is expected to reproduce the play that led him to defeat Nadal last year at Roland Garros.  With the clay season looming, Soderling has the hard courts in the U.S. to pave his way into the clay.

Author’s Note:

With so many players returning from injury and illness, it will be interesting to see who emerges from Indian Wells and Miami with momentum heading into the clay.  It promises to be another roller-coaster season, tennis fans, so buckle up…

Just how worried are the “big cheeses” in charge of the first Masters events of 2010? As the men’s Tour heads towards the climax of the early hard court season in North America, the window of preparation is closing fast. Yet there are worrying signs about who will actually start, let alone stay, the course.

With the news this week that Juan Martin Del Potro will be absent for between one and two months due to a recurrence of a wrist injury, it will be touch and go whether the world No. 5 is able to play in either Indian Wells—which begins in four weeks’ time—or in Miami—six weeks hence.

This comes on the heels of Rafael Nadal’s departure from the circuit in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open, also for at least a month. He is still targeting Indian Wells for his return. But the uncertainty surrounding the fitness of two of the game’s biggest draws must nevertheless be causing a few sleepless nights for tournament organisers.

Del Potro has been hampered, on and off, by tendinitis in the wrist since he won the U.S. Open last September. It forced him to pull out of the second round of the Shanghai Masters, and flared up again at the warm-up tournament in Kooyong before the Australian Open.

He has now been forced to withdraw from Marseille and Dubai with the same problem, and is also unlikely to join the Argentine Davis Cup team against Sweden next month.

It was this time last year that Nadal’s injury problems started: He faded in the final at Rotterdam, and then withdrew from Dubai. This year, following his retirement in the quarterfinals at Melbourne, Nadal did not even make it as far as Rotterdam.

Information about his progress is thin on the ground. His website is under reconstruction during his absence, and his Facebook messages are noncommittal. What little news there is comes from Uncle Toni, who has confirmed that Nadal should be back in training next week. He also confirmed that Nadal’s doctor has ruled out the need for surgery: one light on the horizon at least.

The second glimmer of light for Nadal is that the current knee injury is different from the tendinitis that blighted most of 2009. He aims to defend his Indian Wells title next month, but it will be a big ask to come into an event like Indian Wells with no match-play under his belt.

There has also been news in recent days that Andy Murray is to continue a programme of “recovery” and “recuperation” by withdrawing from the Marseille 250 tournament next week. Bearing in mind that he had already declined to defend his Rotterdam title this year, this latest withdrawal raises a slight concern. Because looking back at Murray’s season so far, it has not been the most arduous of schedules.

In the run-up to the Australian Open, Murray said he was wary of playing too much in the early part of the season, and his schedule confirmed that. He opted not to defend his title in Doha, taking instead the less pressured route of the Hopman Cup into his Melbourne campaign.

Once the Australian Open got under way, he also enjoyed relatively plain sailing on his way to the final, losing just one set in his semi against Marin Cilic. On only three occasions did he have to play tie-breakers.

Yet the announcement of his withdrawal from Marseille talked about recovering from five weeks of play in Australia—something of an exaggeration. He did withdraw from Marseille at the last minute last year, too, but on that occasion, he had just won the Rotterdam title. The worry, of course, is that there were hints in his semi and his final matches at Melbourne that he may have some pain in his thigh and groin. More than once, he was seen to grasp his leg with a grimace.

Last year, Murray reached the final in Indian Wells, and went on to win his third title of the year in Miami. If he is feeling the strain this year already—and it’s difficult to see how one interprets “recovery” and “recuperation” in any other way—what are the chances of his repeating those results?

So Dubai may prove to be an important indicator for Murray. A virus forced him out of the quarterfinals there last year. He will want to make greater inroads this time, but it won’t be easy. This is the favoured event for the big names ahead of the March Masters. Although Dubai will be without two of the top five players for the second year in a row, it expects to have the top two: Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic.

Another top-20 player destined to sit out the North American Masters is Lleyton Hewitt. He had climbed to No. 19 after last year’s return from hip surgery, and is now sidelined until the clay season by his other hip.

World No. 15, Mikhail Youzhny, had to pull out of the final in Rotterdam last week, saying the pain in his leg was too much to handle. He’d struggled progressively as the tournament advanced. How long he will be sidelined is still unknown.

The catalogue of woes for David Nalbandian also continued. Until this week, he had not played a tournament following hip surgery last May because his expected return was thwarted by strained abdominal muscles prior to Melbourne. Although Indian Wells is on his schedule, he isn’t yet on the starting list for that event or for the Miami Masters. In any case, starting a comeback campaign on clay can hardly be the ideal preparation.

Richard Gasquet’s Tour comeback has been hampered by a back injury sustained during his first round marathon against Youzhny at the Australian Open. And other players to have suffered injuries since Melbourne include: Victor Troiki, Sergiy Stakhovsky, Florian Mayer, and Gilles Simon, to name but a few.

But there is good news, too.

Robin Soderling, whose sluggish start to the season was put down to a right elbow problem, made a strong comeback in Rotterdam. Judging from the weight of his hitting last week, he is approaching the form he showed at the World Tour Finals: powerful, thinking, and confident. He can put on a lot of points in Indian Wells and Miami, and therefore edge to an all-time high ranking by the first week in April.

Andy Roddick, too, is performing well after his extended layoff at the end of 2009. His play in San Jose should also allay any concerns about the shoulder pain that got the better of him in his arduous five-setter against Cilic in Melbourne.

Cilic himself is looking very fit and in excellent form. He has continued his winning ways since Melbourne with the title in Zagreb.

But it’s Djokovic and Nikolay Davydenko who could take the best advantage of their current fitness and good form. Both men shine in the three-set format, and both have come into 2010 boasting some excellent end-of-season wins.

Djokovic will certainly fancy his chances of winning at least one of the forthcoming Masters events, though he will not be able to improve on his No. 2 ranking.

Davydenko, though, has the chance to gain some serious ground from the rest of the hard-court swing. He is looking fit, fast and determined, still buoyed up by his World Tour Finals title. He missed this whole phase of the Tour last year with injuries of his own. Which means that, if he continues to play well through Dubai and the North American Masters, he can put on serious ranking points.

With the question marks over the participation or the performance of the world Nos. 4 and 5 in the coming weeks, Davydenko has his best chance since the middle of 2008 of breaking into the top four before the Tour switches to clay.

It’s an ill wind that blows nobody any good.

The series “Pillars of Roger’s Career” looks back at key matches in the evolution of the mighty Roger Federer.

As the tennis telescope turns towards Flushing Meadow at the end of August, the world sits comfortably on its axis, and turns at its designated 24 hours a day. Roger Federer is No. 1 in the world, holds the Wimbledon title, and has broken Pete Sampras’ grip on the Grand Slam record.

Rewind 12 months and this was precisely the scenario that had been predicted for last year’s US Open. Except that, by August 2008, Federer had lost his No. 1 ranking, lost his Wimbledon title and had many commentators doubting whether he would ever reach that elusive 14th Grand Slam. The earth had, for tennis aficionados, tilted out of true.

Federer’s losses had begun, unexpectedly, at the very start of 2008, the first surprise being his capitulation of the Australian title. A subsequent diagnosis of glandular fever explained the result but did not silence the few who had begun to question his hunger.

While Federer continued with the required tournaments and ATP commitments, he was clearly not himself. Rafael Nadal was eating away at his ranking points, Novak Djokovic was celebrating his first Slam victory and further Masters success. Other rising stars were also picking Federer off—not least Andy Murray.

So the year went on, with a shocking defeat at the hands of Nadal in Paris, and a heartbreaking loss to the same adversary at Wimbledon. Most ominously, he made early exits from the key hard-court Masters leading into Flushing Meadows.

So the pressure could not have been higher nor the expectations lower for the four-time U.S. champion’s bid to equal the 80-year-old record of Bill Tilden.

2008, though, had one extra element. It was Olympic year and Federer, with compatriot Stanislas Wawrinka, won a hugely emotional doubles gold. It turned out to be a very significant gold, too, for it seemed to ignite a fire that revitalised the Federer confidence.

That, and the gradual release from the grip of glandular fever, saw him work his way through some tough early rounds once the Open started. In particular, he managed to overcome an on-fire Igor Andreev in five-sets, confirming that he had, once more, the physical and mental reserves to stay the distance.

Federer’s dismissal of Djokovic in the semi-final was achieved with some of his best shot-making of the season—his trademark combination of power, touch, timing and tactics was back.

The meeting with Andy Murray in the final was a tantalising prospect. The vastly improved British man was bidding for his first Grand Slam. He made no secret of the fact that he loved New York, and that he would particularly love this title. While Federer had bombed out just weeks before in Cincinnati, Murray had won the title, so knew he was peaking on his favorite surface at the right time.

There was some added spice to liven the taste buds. Murray was, and indeed continues to be, one of very few players on tour with a winning record against Federer. Murray had even beaten Federer at one of his favourite tournaments, his training base in Dubai. Coming back to the tour from a six-week medical lay-off, Federer was not impressed by the style of Murray’s win. It was a criticism that pricked Murray, and that he revisited in subsequent interviews.

Murray had earned his tilt at the title by beating Nadal in a dramatic semi-final that spread across two days and two courts. He had barely a day to recover from his four-set marathon, while Federer enjoyed a full two.

But if Federer had been superb in beating Djokovic, Murray had been equally impressive in taking a two set lead on day one and then turning the tide against a resurgent Nadal after the overnight rain delay. He was certainly in bullish form ahead of the final: “I played well enough to beat the No. 1 player in the world over two days, and I’ve beaten Roger in the past.”

He hadn’t banked on meeting a Federer who had rediscovered his sparkling, dominant form.

From the moment Federer strode onto court, he looked a winner. Confident, purposeful, relaxed, moving even in warm-up like mercury—liquid, sinuous, flashing across the blue surface. His tennis burned flame-hot, the colour of the shirt he wore.

The onslaught began at once. Federer exuded a kind of prancing energy, weight forward, on his toes, posture urgent, even when he missed a shot. His tactics were clearly to attack, and he did so with devastating backhands, showcase forehands, and aggressive forays to net—44 of them.

He constructed points like a chess player. A sliced backhand would be followed by a drive backhand, then a forehand down the line, followed by a slow, floating slice deep to the baseline corner before unleashing a whipped forehand at twice the pace.

The attack began on Murray’s very first service game, and the Scot, so upbeat before the match, was immediately caught off guard. One was reminded of the Federer criticism, back in Dubai, about staying too far back.

By 4-2 up, Federer was striking balls with abandon from and into all parts of the court, invariably airborne in some kind of balletic jette. Within 26 minutes, the set was over, 6-2.

The second set gave Murray a chance to find his range. Though Federer broke his first service game, Murray broke back equally spectacularly.

By 2-2, the set was evenly balanced, with both men attacking, and both making a few errors: the windy conditions caused a number of mistimed strikes on both sides.

The fifth game turned out to be one of the pivotal moments of the match. Federer was serving and continued his attack on every shot, but in this particular game he pushed several drives just long, and found himself at 0-40.

He pulled back to 30-40 with forehands that just caught the base line. On the third break point, there were gasps mid-point when Federer again skimmed the line, and followed up with a winning volley. There was no call, and the game was held. Had Murray challenged, the Federer drive would be shown long and Murray would have won the break. As it was, the moment had passed.

Federer later identified that as his trigger to play more freely. He clearly hadn’t noticed the first set!

So despite some spirited and spasmodically stunning tennis from Murray, he could not get the upper hand. At 5-6 down, his serve was subjected to one of the finest sequences of points ever caught on film, as Federer launched a blistering attack. Three points were taken with smashes and the fourth with a chased down running forehand pass.

The debate about whether fatigue from his semi match caught up with Murray in the third and final set will probably continue for some years yet. It would be as easy, though, to attribute the 5-0 scoreline to flawless tennis from Federer. He may even have closed the match out at 6-0 had he not been so close to imploding with intensity. Finally, though, with another sequence of three smashes, he took the set 6-2.

Federer exuded intensity from the very start of the final against Andy Murray, and his reaction on winning spoke volumes about what his only Slam win of the year meant.

Until the French Open this year, it’s hard to recall a more exultant Federer. The U.S. victory, after such a tormenting year, meant the world.

Murray, who had been so bullish at the outset was sheepish, though gracious, in defeat: “Came up against, in my opinion, the best player ever to play. He definitely set the record straight today.”

The earth’s axis was, for a while at least, back in alignment.

Murray went on to beat Federer in Madrid, and then again in a stunning battle at the Master’s Cup in Shanghai. Both matches were the best of three sets, and in both Federer carried a back injury.

In the early months of 2009, Murray beat Federer on hard courts in Doha and in Indian Wells. Again, these were best-of-three matches, with Federer fighting back from injury layoffs.

By the time they arrive in New York this year, they may well have faced each other again. This time, Murray is more fit and more confident than ever, and will almost certainly have developed new tactics.

Federer, though, unlike last year, will go into the competition as the top-performing, top-ranked player in the world. He also relishes the physical intensity of the Grand Slam format.

He may now have that Sampras record, but he would love to crown his year with one more record: the only man to win six consecutive U.S. titles.

Now find more great “pillars” of Roger Federer’s career.

Serena Williams topped Justine Henin in a great three set match.

Those of us who deliberately sabotaged our sleep patterns to watch the Australian Open these past two weeks found we arrived almost exactly where we expected since the draws were announced.  That is not to say that we did not experience some thrilling matches as counterpunchers reigned early and aggressors stayed late.

We rather expected one of the “unretired” Belgians to survive that tough third quarter of the women’s draw to face Serena Williams in the final.  That it was Justine Henin who charged to the finish line made the women’s championship match that much more intriguing because the rivalry between the sturdy American and the miniature French woman is steeped in silent, stoney resentment.

Serena won the championship in three tough sets 6-4, 3-6, 6-2.  But we expect the rivalry to blossom once again, especially as the tour heads into the clay season and spills onto the storied grounds of Stade Roland Garros where the Belgian will surely shine once again.

But more so –– we expected Roger Federer to be standing on one side of the net during the men’s final.  Oh, yes, there was talk about the recent dominance of Nikolay Davydenko and the quiet resurgence  of Novak Djokovic.  That is not to discount the sultry passion of the other Spaniard, Fernando, the body, Verdasco or the raw athleticism of Jo Wilfried Tsonga whose smile lights up the world.

Ultimately, however, Federer in a five set major is going to make it to the final –– consult the oddsmakers.

Roger Federer defeated Andy Murray in a Grand Slam final for the second time.

So the Swiss did on Sunday with the lanky Scott Andy Murray facing him in the championship match.  Fitting.  Murray had a splendid Australian Open Tournament for a change.  This time around, he was the hot player who dismissed his opponents and sent them packing.

He did so to challenger Marin Cilic who made his presence known and felt all the way to the semifinals.  Murray also dismissed the defending champion Rafael Nadal whose suspect knees let him down again.

As Federer polished off Tsonga in the semifinals on Friday, he appeared to issue a challenge to the younger Murray –– catch me if you can –– but I don’t think you will.

The truckload of British journalists and tabloid reporters pounced on the perceived “gamesmanship” posture of the Swiss No. 1, treating it as a slap in the face with a single glove.  Had Federer truly thrown down the gauntlet?  Of course he had.

Regardless the intent –– the target was clear.  Murray had every intention of bringing Federer and his confident encampment to their knees.  But this media turmoil only served to add to the mounting pressure on the shoulders of the 22-year-old Scot.  It proved to be just what Murray did not need but had to face if he was going to win this Australian Open tournament.

Roger Federer had every intention of making the burden too heavy for the Scot to bear.  The perfect advantage of the reigning No. 1 –– is making the opposition doubt itself.  It encourages tempered resistance instead of all out war.  It tempts testing the water instead of jumping into the match head on.

Murray was frustrated throughout the match with Federer.

By making Murray cautious, the Scot played right into Federer’s game plan.  As the dictator of pace and placement, nothing or no one could touch the mighty Swiss.  Even as the Scot retreated, he knew better. But Murray could not overcome his natural instincts and he seldom ventured outside his comfort zone.

Naturally, Roger Federer won in straight sets 6-3, 6-4, 7-6, tested but never bested.  In the end Murray raised his level of assault in the third and final set –– but it was too little, too late.  This made his defeat even more bitter because Murray rediscovered that he had to play beyond his normal boundaries to take down Federer.

Murray did so against Nadal; but Nadal is so nakedly aggressive that the tactics to win against him are more immediately apparent.  With Federer –– it is different because the Swiss can lull you into that zone where you believe you can fly with him.  Too late, you realize that you cannot as he revs up into another gear that you don’t possess.  The problem for Murray is that sometimes the Scot’s normal game is enough in three set matches.

That may hold true post 2008  –– but never in five-set majors.  If Federer seizes that first set, chances are he will relax, seeing and feeling the ball better as the match progresses.  In the two sets that Federer lost –– both first sets against Russians Igor Andreev in the first round and Nikolay Davydenko in the quarterfinals –– once Federer won the second set and found his rhythm and confidence, he became unbeatable.

Federer claimed his 16th Grand Slam title in Melbourne.

As the dust settles after the Australian Open concludes both Roger Federer at age 28 and Serena Williams also at age 28 will retain their No. 1 rankings.  On the men’s side, Nadal will fall from No. 2 to No. 4.  Novak Djokovic will rise to No. 2 and Andy Murray to No. 3.  Interesting to say the least as those beneath Federer continue to slug it out tournament by tournament.

Slam number 17 awaits Federer.  The question of when it will arrive should soon dominate the media and consume tennis blogs across the Web.

But Roger will begin his move toward another Pete Sampras record –– total weeks at No. 1.  Sampras reigns with 286 weeks at No. 1.  Roger is third with 268 weeks.  That makes it just 18 short weeks to match the American.  Who will lay odds that Federer will not surpass Sampras again?

On the women’s side Dinara Safina will retain the No. 2 spot with Caroline Wozniacki taking over No. 3 , followed by Svetlana Kuznetsova at No. 4 and Venus Williams at No. 5.

Henin who was runner-up at the 2010 Australian Open still needs to play one more WTA tournament before she can be ranked.  Li Na who played Serena Williams so tough in the semis will move into the No. 10 spot for the first time.

As is their custom, neither champion will rush back into competition.  Both are content to  play the minimum required, showing up for the next compulsory tournament, biding their time until the next major presents itself –– along with all the competitors who wish to dethrone them and take over that elusive No. 1 mantle.

Andy Murray could do little but watch as Roger Federer claimed his 16th Grand Slam title.

Early Sunday morning, and the Great British public has risen early, as one, in the expectation of witnessing something special. It is the growing burden that Andy Murray has borne since he strode into battle in the Australian Open two weeks ago.

With every passing round, with each bigger foe put to the sword, the battle cries have grown.

Now, finally, the lights blaze over the perfect sweep of the Rod Laver arena and the crimson daylight subsides over the Melbourne skyline for the last time.

After two weeks of intense competition, it all comes down to this: Just two men standing.

They are the best that tennis has to offer on this last day of January. The three-time Australian champion, Roger

Federer, is attempting to hold off the aspiring first-time champion, Murray.

Federer has done it before, in the U.S. Open, but 18 months, many matches, sharper skills, and increased maturity have swelled the stature of the young Scot’s shoulders.

And there is something more. In the night sky beyond those spotlights, the stars seem to have shifted into alignment. This is Murray’s 17th Grand Slam in his 22nd year, the very number of Slams and years it took Federer to win his first title.

It is also precisely 50 years since Rod Laver won his first Slam, also in his 22nd year, in this very tournament.

Murray's frustration grew as he had no answers for Federer.

To add a little more bloodlust to the Murray game, it was in this very city, almost 15 years ago to the day, that Fred Perry, the last British man to win a Grand Slam 74 years ago, died.

Perhaps that was the final pinch of salt rubbed into the wounds inflicted on Murray by Federer in this final showdown. For it proved to be nothing less than death by a thousand cuts. Meticulous planning, exquisite execution, straight sets.

The smiling assassin

The signs were there for all to see during the whole tournament. Federer was relaxed, confident, and exuded bonhomie. Jokes and banter came thick and fast, particularly at the hands of Jim Courier. That same confidence translated to Federer’s tennis, even when he lost a set—which he did only twice.

With such relaxation came patience, and that was Federer’s extra, unexpected ingredient from the start of the match.

Both players leave fans and critics bereft of adjectives to describe their panoply of shot-making, touch, speed, and intelligence, but Murray and Federer deploy their talents from different standpoints.

Murray is the counter-puncher who can stand his ground with deep or angled ground strokes, varied spin, and dramatic changes of pace. He bides his time, forcing the error from his opponent or making the killer approach or passing shot.

He has the body strength and deftness of hand to create such winners in the blink of an eye.

Federer plays the offensive game, going for winners within two or three shots of a rally. He can defend, but still looks for an opening to attack the net or drive a zipping forehand.

It was this archetypal Federer who won a break of serve in Murray’s first service game. But what immediately became clear was that Federer was also willing and able to play the waiting game: a less archetypal Federer.

Federer was in control throughout the three-set match.

Rallies unfolded like chess matches, with both players probing all parts of the court, waiting for an opening. It was enthralling tennis, but a patient Federer who is hitting his wide repertoire of shots with conviction and accuracy, is a deadly combination.

Murray had new balls to serve at 3-4 down, but Federer, already into a fresh shirt on this humid Melbourne night, calmly fired off a stunning backhand winner followed by a forehand winner to break.

It was first blood and first set, 6-3, to Federer: dynamic in shot making, penetrating in tactics, but also patient in point building.

Glint of steel and flash of blade

The second set unfolded in similar fashion. Federer continued to engage with Murray in complex rallies, and continued to defend with patience. Murray forced him to defend the backhand wing with a constant barrage from his own sliced backhand but failed to break it down.

Time and again, the Federer backhand parried with Murray’s, until it pierced the defence like the thrust of a foil. With a weakness exposed, Federer found the time and space for a whipped sweep down the line or a dance around the ball for his signature off-forehand winner.

In the blink of an eye, he broke to go 2-1 up and held for a 3-1 advantage.

Federer almost repeated the sword-thrust with a second break, but Murray put up a spirited fight to pull back break points and hold. It was the same flashing blades in the eighth game, and once more Murray fended off the attack.

A familiar steel entered Federer’s eyes as well as his game as he served out a love game to reach 5-3. His next service game was just as incisive, finished off with a searing net attack and winning volley: 6-4.

Silent, serene slayer

Still Federer remained calm, relaxed, focused. Murray seemed to be using a sword of base metal against a weapon of finely-sharpened steel, but his heart and legs continued to wield it with energy and belief.

Even as he continues to increase his record number of grand slam singles titles, Federer, continues to play with passion and determination.

After an easy service game, he gained his first break point chance since the first set, but overplayed a backhand.

Federer held, but in the sixth game, Murray gained three more break points and, with some stunning swordplay at the net, took one of them with a deft passing shot.

The blood rose in Murray’s veins and he continued to attack with gusto to hold his serve easily. He was 5-2 up, and his first serve was beginning to hit the mark.

The crowd roared him on, his box roared him on, and he roared himself on.

The quietest man in the arena was Federer, and despite a few errors from his racket, he radiated calm. Murray attacked him across the full width of the baseline, but Federer defended confidently, and then silently stepped in to attack the Murray second serve at 30-30. It was a last-ditch attempt to retrieve the third set, yet it looked like a stroll in the park.

Federer drew one break point, and was aced. He then produced a deceptive backhand slice that dipped so low across the net that it drew a Murray error. Federer had the break back.

The killer blow

With the set now even at 5-5, Murray was taken to deuce on his serve, but won the game with an ace. Federer applied a stiletto to the heart with a love service game and Murray, with his 5-2 lead whittled away, now opened the tie-break.

He took the early advantage and a 3-1 lead. He forced the play still further with some outstanding crosscourt winners, and appeared in control as he advanced to 6-4. Even then, Federer’s concentration stayed firm. He won back one break point, and was gifted the second by a tense Murray.

At 8-9 Federer again served to save the set, and the patience told once more as a 23-stroke rally eventually drew an error from Murray. The balance switched from set point to championship point three times, until the silent assassin finally outgunned Murray, 13-11. It was a straight sets victory, a fourth Australian title, and a 16th Grand Slam.

Federer finished as he began. Without fireworks, without roars, without tears, but with a relaxed beam that announced, simply, that he is the best.

And questions now have to be asked. When did Federer ever look more at ease? When did he last play more confidently? When has that backhand ever looked stronger, or those feet more nimble? Murray, and many who watched this match, will be scratching their heads to find the answers.

But will Federer still be questioned about his motivation, or whether he has the game to withstand the new generation of players who come out with all guns blazing?

Probably.

However, this was a Grand Slam with all the top players present and correct. Leading the charge was Murray, who hadn’t dropped a set to anyone, was fresh, confident and fitter than he’s ever been. The problem for Murray and the rest is that Federer came to the battle with an expanded battery of ammunition—an improving net game and a flowering backhand in particular.

Add in the maturity of a man in peak fitness and brimming with confidence, and it looks like Federer has thrown down the gauntlet once more.

Cometh the hour, this man will step up.

Andy Murray struggled in his second Grand Slam final against Roger Federer.

One Murray showed up to play Rafael Nadal on the Australian Open quarter finals in Melbourne this year.  He came out on fire, pouncing on short balls, using his versatility on every shot, and playing ‘circus shots’ as soon as the chair umpire said ‘play.’  As if he knew that was what it took to get by a player with the talent of Rafael Nadal.  And as if he was motivated to get beyond the quarter finals.  As if he was the same age as the guy across the net, and just as good a player.  This Andy Murray played without letup for two whole sets.  Relentlessly aggressive, and respectful of what he was going to receive from the other side.

Another Murray showed up to start his semi-final match against Marin Cilic this year. Listless. Nervous. But when it looked like he was going to be out of the tournament, he came to life. The ‘other’ Murray manifested!

Let’s invent an avatar for this other Murray, and call him William Wallace Murray. We even have a visual to to with the avatar – it is the roaring face of Andy Murray at break point in the second set of the Cilic match! With face painted blue!

The second Murray showed up to play the final against Roger Federer. We can invent an avatar for this player too. We could call him Bonnie Prince Charlie – Murray, but that would be cruel. OK, let’s be cruel. There’s a visual to go with this avatar too. I can picture it now, a moment in 2008 at the Roger’s Cup in Toronto against Rafael Nadal, when he missed a put away and slammed his racket to the ground and made a mock barfing face. Or we could use one from this final: a grimace as he missed, yet again, one of his famous forehands down the line , one that he makes all the time on other, less momentous, occasions.

BPC-Murray (let’s shorten it) is not a total disaster. Against players outside of the top ten, BPC-Murray is crafty, capable, confident, in control. A great example of the efficacy of this Murray is his play against American John Isner in the 4th round. Even an American football player, visiting in the stands, could perceive the scary, deliberate, craftiness of this Murray as he probed and found the weaknesses of Isner, and then cruelly (and beautifully) wrapped him up, like spider with a fly.

It is increasingly evident that BPC-Murray cannot get the job done in best-of-five series’, playing against the top ten. Against Fernando Verdasco, at last year’s AO, he wilted. He could not get it done against Andy Roddick at Wimbledon, 2009. He racked up his worst loss ever against Marin Cilic at last year’s USO, playing like a man who had not managed his tournament in a way that left him with enough juice in the business end.

The question is – why does not Andy bring out William Wallace Murray more often? Clearly he has to be pushed pretty hard to metaphorically paint his face blue. Against Rafael Nadal in Monte Carlo last year, he faced match point, and suddenly went into a phone booth, put on his cape, and manifested a fearless, aggressive player, who played his best clay court tennis, took it to Rafa, and produced, between the two of them, some of the most compelling tennis of the year (for a game and a tie-break). The craftiness stayed, but the ability to make his ‘circus shots’ and take risks — well, these are all that a tennis fan could wish to see, win or lose.

William Wallace Murray came to play in the third set of the Australian Open final. But not until Roger had build back a couple of break points and leveled the match. At 5-3 up, the match turned into the match we wanted to see, with Roger raising his game, and Murray fighting him off, and like the 2009 Monte Carlo match against Rafa Nadal, creating an extended, heart-stopping, finger-nail biting, edge of seat gripping, tie-break.

Murray could do little but watch as Federer hoisted his 16th Grand Slam trophy.

I’m going to suggest it is a lack of respect. Andy is confident of his game and thinks he can be BPC-Murray and get the job done. Except when he respects his opponent enough to man-up and prepare to release William Wallace Murray from his cage.

Andy does not respect (fear) Roger as much as he does Rafa. Roger and Andy’s mutual lack of respect (relative to other players on the tour), leads to their sniping at each other in the press prior to almost all of their matches.

In the long run this latent cockiness may produce a career in which Andy Murray may be a lot like Marat Safin. When Marat Safin was ‘on’ his game was versatile, compelling, beautiful, passionate, and highly skilled. Marat absolutely crushed Pete Sampras in the 2000 USO. In the 2005 Australian Open semi Marat played against Roger, we saw it all, every single technique. To the point where the match turned not on technique, but heart and physicality (fitness), and psychology. For a tennis fan, these are the things of which greatness comes. We will always love and respect Marat for his flashes of brilliance.

In Murray’s case, we know that William Wallace Murray exists, but we don’t get to see him very often until the business end of a major, if then. The challenge for Murray in his career will be to obtain a balance between cockiness and respect for his opponent in order to find a way to bring William Wallace Murray out when he needs him.

Andy Murray struggled to live up to the hype and promise in 2009

(This is the first in a series of articles looking at how some of the top tennis players in the world fared in 2009)

Andy Murray ATP World Rank No. 4

There appears to be no middle ground for the surly Scotsman Andy Murray. He is either riding high buoyed by success and self-confidence or he is dog paddling in the inky depths of impatience.

This week the headlines screamed that his girlfriend dumped him because he became addicted to gaming on his PlayStation 3, preferring it to her. Murray, it seems, is in a real funk—“Stuck in Neutral.”

With Juan Martin del Potro nipping at his heels only 245 ATP points behind, Murray hangs onto his No. 4 ranking by a thread—while trailing Novak Djokovic, the third-ranked player by 1,280 points.

His name forever linked with expectation, Murray began 2009 with much hype and promise. The Scot had defeated his nemesis Roger Federer in Shanghai at the year-end ATP 2008 Masters Championships during a hard-fought round-robin contest—bumping the Swiss out of the semifinals.

Murray was so exhausted by his victory that he lost the next day to Nikolay Davydenko.

Early Season Hardcourts

Murray recovered nicely, however, and began the year with impressive victories over both Federer and Rafael Nadal, winning the season opener—an exhibition match in Abu Dhabi. The Scot followed that up with a successful defense of his title in Doha at the Qatar Open, defeating American Andy Roddick in the final.

The press was clamoring, proclaiming Murray as the favorite to take the 2009 Australian Open crown from Novak Djokovic. This offended both Federer and the Serb who said in so many words that Murray lacked the credentials.

They need not have fussed because Murray—whose bad luck at the Australian Open is well documented—ran into a very hot Fernando Verdasco in the fourth round and was promptly excused from the tournament.

Murray inevitably meets the up-and-coming red hot players in his quarter. Call it fate or bad luck—regardless, it follows the Scot Down Under.

The press was not kind. It usually isn’t when one of the top players fails to live up to his seeding and his hype. Murray, himself, felt he had been playing well enough to win the Australian Open, but Verdasco got in his way.

Murray proceeded to Rotterdam where he defeated world No. 1 Nadal in the final. But in the process Murray sustained an injury to his right ankle, slowing his progress for several weeks.

In the tournament in Dubai, Murray had to withdraw during a match with Frenchman Richard Gasquet because of a viral infection. This same infection kept Murray from participating in the Davis Cup tie with Ukraine.

It was time for the noble Scot to head west to the United States where for the first time Murray made it all the way to the finals of the Masters Series Tournament at Indian Wells. Unfortunately he lost that match to Nadal.

At the Sony Ericsson Open in Key Biscayne, Murray again made it to the finals, where he defeated Djokovic. The win was Murray’s 11th career win, equaling the mark of fellow Brit Tim Henman.

Clay Season

The men’s tour moved on to clay. Murray lost to Nadal in the semifinals of the Monte Carlo Masters. In Rome, the Scot lost to Juan Monaco, a qualifier from Argentina, in the second round. But because Djokovic failed to defend his title in Rome, Murray became the No. 3 player in the world, leaping over the Serb in mid-May.

Murray fell in the quarterfinals in Paris.

Having his first truly decent season on clay was a great boon for the Scot who made it to the quarterfinals in Madrid before losing to del Potro. Murray enjoyed his best ever result at the French Open, making it to the quarterfinals, where he lost to Fernando Gonzalez.

Grass Season

As the tour moved to grass, Murray accomplished the unimaginable. He captured the Queen’s Club, where defending champion Nadal withdrew before the tournament began. The Scot became the first British winner since 1938, and it was Murray’s first tournament win in Britain.

The Scot defeated James Blake in the Queen’s Club final and ushered in an crescendo of expectation for the upcoming Wimbledon Championship.

When Nadal also withdrew from Wimbledon, Murray became the No. 2 seed. Murray achieved many firsts at this tournament—beyond his seeding. His match with Stanislav Wawrinka became the first played under Centre Court’s new closed roof as well as the latest concluding match ever played on Centre Court, ending at 22.39 BST.

Andy Murray reached the semifinals at Wimbledon for the first time in 2009.

Murray lost to Andy Roddick in the semifinals, making it the furthest the Scot had ever progressed at Wimbledon. But, once again, Murray did not win a major, and the British sighs deepened with continued disappointment.

American Hardcourt Season

On to the American hardcourt season and Montreal. For Murray it was a new high. When he won the Masters Series Tournament in Canada, Murray assured himself of taking over the No. 2 ranking from Nadal. Murray became the first man since July of 2005 to be ranked in the top two besides Federer or Nadal.

But then the season turned once again at the U.S. Open. Unfortunately, Murray could not hang onto the ranking or advance after being defeated by Marin Cilic in the fourth round. High expectations were dashed once again, and Murray remained “major-less” as the 2009 season closed for the year.

The Indoor Season

Murray’s subsequent wrist injury kept him from participating in the indoor season. Eventually his ranking fell back to fourth in the world.

His return to London to play in the Barclays ATP World Tour Championships was highlighted by great fan support. Although tied with Federer and del Potro in this round-robin group, Murray failed to advance to the semifinal round because his winning percentage was worse. The Argentine edged him out by one game.

Murray left 2009 much as he entered it, with moments of great victories and high expectation followed by moments of unexpected defeat and denial. He began the year ranked No. 4 and ended the year in the same spot—stuck in neutral, with his fans wondering if and when the stolid Scot will capture his first Major.

Roger Federer hopes to kiss the U.S. Open trophy for a sixth straight year in 2009.

Introduction
From 2004-2008 Roger Federer won the U.S. Open in New York.  Within the confines of Arthur Ashe Stadium Federer has won his last 35 matches in a row during what many call the toughest tournament in tennis.

Once the US Open begins this year, Federer seeks to extend his record winning streak with a record sixth consecutive US Open title.

After winning the 2009 French Open and Wimbledon, the Swiss regained the top ranking.  Federer compiled a total of 15 grand slam  wins – more than any other male tennis player.

Federer has only lost four matches ever at the US Open.  Since Andre Agassi has retired, the only active ATP Tour players to defeat Federer at the U.S. Open are Juan Carlos Ferrero of Spain, Max Mirnyi of Belarus and David Nalbandian of Argentina.

In his U.S. Open debut in 2000 after turning professional in 1998, Federer lost to Ferrero in the third round; then he lost to Agassi (2001), Mirnyi (2002) and Nalbandian (2003) in the fourth round.

Federer got revenge against Agassi with victories at the U.S. Open in 2004 and 2005. In 2005, Federer also would defeat Nalbandian.

But the Swiss is yet to score a New York rematch versus Mirnyi, who has retired from singles competition, or Ferrero.

2004
U.S. Open Roger Federer vs. Lleyton Hewitt 6-0, 7-6, 6-0.

2004 was a great year for the young man from Switzerland.  Winning the U.S. Open capped it off in fine style.  It was Federer’s 9th title of the year and his 20th title overall – his fourth career grand slam.

Federer won his first U.S. Open in 2004 defeating Leyton Hewitt.

Lleyton Hewitt, the 2001 champion, was at his fiery finest as he beat the 22-year-old Swede Joachim Johannson 6-4 7-5 6-3 at Flushing Meadows making only 14 unforced errors and facing only one break point.

Johansson, who overcame defending champion Andy Roddick in the semis, produced flashes of brilliance serving 17 aces; but he was never allowed to find his best form.  Hewitt was relentless and broke Johannson once in each set.

Hewitt went into Sunday’s final looking secure. He had not lost a set so far in the tournament and had endured only one tiebreak.  Hewitt made few unforced errors, returning Johansson’s best shots back with interest, maneuvering his tall opponent deftly around the court.

But his match against Federer proved to be an unending nightmare for Hewitt because the world number one was at times unplayable and withstood a Hewitt fight-back.

Hewitt came into the final on a 16-match winning streak but Federer took control with a stunning first love set.  A tight match had been expected but Federer came out in blistering form, dominating with his forehand and racing through the opening set in 18 minutes

Hewitt battled superbly in the second but faltered in the tie-break, and Federer powered through the third for his fourth Grand Slam title.

Federer became the first man in history to win his first four Grand Slam finals and the first man since Mats Wilander in 1988 to win three Grand Slams in a year, following victories in Australia and at Wimbledon.

The 35-year old Andre Agassi was no match for Federer at the 2005 U.S. Open

2005
U.S. Open 2005 – Roger Federer vs. Andre Agassi 6-3, 2-6, 7-6, 6-1

Roger Federer remarked that his U.S. Open victory over Andre Agassi in 2005 was the best of his six grand slam victories.

Federer triumphed 6-3 2-6 7-6 (7-1) 6-1 to retain his title, and confessed: “This is the most special one for me, to play Andre in the final of the US Open.

“He’s one of the only living legends in tennis we still have.”

Federer had defeated the 35-year old Agassi 8 times in a row; but the world number one said he still relished the battle that allowed him to win an incredible 23 straight finals.

At 35, Agassi was the oldest finalist since a 39-year-old Ken Rosewall won just two games in losing to Jimmy Connors in 1974.

The man from Las Vegas must have feared a similar fate early on when the Swiss Maestro settled easily into his typical smooth rhythm.

Federer broke Agassi in game six and, after missing seven set points, eventually clinched the opening set.  Federer seemed to breathe easier.

Agassi, however, was not going down without a fight and he broke Federer immediately in the second set with some heavy returning, saving three break points on his way to clinching the second set.

The crowd was wildly behind Agassi.  Finally, it seemed Federer was there for the taking, and the American went 4-2 up in the third set on his third break-point chance.

Federer was not capitulating.  For Agassi the task of capitalizing on chances against the Swiss was another matter. That became readily apparent as Federer hit back immediately.

Federer failed to convert four break points in the heart-stopping eleventh game but, with the match hanging in the balance, the Swiss found his best form to win the tie-break 7-1.

Agassi was done.  His last chance disappeared and he went down swinging under a barrage of Federer winners.  Federer finished the match on his third Championship point with a winning serve – shouting to the heavens as he celebrated winning another major title.

2006
2006 U.S. Open Championship Roger Federer vs. Andy Roddick 6-2, 4-6. 7-5, 6-1.

Happily Roger Federer promised there would be more Grand Slam success in the future after defeating Andy Roddick 6-2, 4-6, 7-5, 6-1 in the 2006 U.S. Open final.

It was Federer’s third straight U.S. Open title and his ninth Grand Slam, putting him sixth on the all-time winners list.

He became the first man in the Open era to win three successive Wimbledon and U.S. Open titles in the same years.

It took four sets for Federer to defeat Andy Roddick in 2006.

That Federer started out superbly was no surprise since he held a 10-1 career record against Roddick.  Racing to a 4-0 start, Federer dropped his serve in game seven, but broke again to take the first set.

The American fought back showing he was tougher than he appeared by breaking Federer immediately in the second set and using his huge serve to take the set.

The third set proved critical and the level of the match intensified.  Roddick pushed Federer to the brink and provided as much excitement as the crowd had witnessed in the past three years at Flushing Meadows.

The American had four break points in game five but could not convert any, netting a forehand on his best opportunity.  Roddick then saved five break points in the next spectacular game and the belief surged through him.

With the New York crowd fully engaged, Federer remained calm – almost stoic throughout.  As is his custom, Federer raised the level of his game when it counted, breaking Roddick with a backhand pass in game 12 to take the pivotal third set.

With Roddick’s spirit finally broken, Federer rocketed through the fourth set, providing the assembled 23,000 spectators a master class in tennis as he wrapped up a victory in two hours 26 minutes.

Federer even had to withstand the pressure of golf’s world number one, Tiger Woods, watching him at court-side in Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Roddick was realistic after losing for the 11th time in 12 meetings with the world number one.

“He’s the best player in the game. There’s no question in my mind or if you ask any player about that.”

2007
US Open Final 2007 Roger Federer vs. Novak Djokovic 7-6, 7-6, 6-4

The defeat may have been in straight sets but the young Serb had his chances.  Roger Federer trailed by a break in each set but Djokovic failed by faltering at key moments in his first Grand Slam final.

Federer rolled past Novak Djokovic at the 2007 U.S. Open.

Djokovic missed a total of seven set points but Federer resurrected something near top form in the crucial tie-breaks.

Federer seemed particularly nervous as the match got underway.  His usually reliable forehand let him down – finally in game 11 he suffered the first service break of the day.

But Djokovic could not rise to the occasion and even after he went up 40-0 building three set points, the young Serb could not close it out.  He ended up allowing five set chances to go wanting.  Federer evened the score and they headed for a tiebreak.

Federer took full advantage as Djokovic lost his mini-break lead in the tie-break and then double faulted at set-point down.

It was devastating to lose the first set but the young Serb quickly put it behind him and promptly broke first in the second set – Federer could not seem to turn the tourniquet tight enough to stop bleeding errors.

Djokovic could not find his way to the finish line, again. Federer broke the Serb’s serve at love in game seven.

In the twelfth game, two more set points were lost, one with a Federer ace and the second when a backhand landed long by a miniscule fraction.

In the second tie-break Federer’s form returned and the Swiss served superbly and followed his impeccable placement with successive forehand and backhand winners.

Djokovic had many more chances in the third set.  In the fifth game he held a 0-40 lead and three break points but again the young Serb failed to convert and he let Federer off the hook again.

The stress and the constant pressure drained the Serb and he began to grow weary.  Finally Federer did not have to work too hard to stay in front.

And a lone break at the end of the third was enough to give Federer the 12th Grand Slam title of his career.

He became the first man ever to win Wimbledon and the US Open for four years in a row, and the first to win four straight US titles since Bill Tilden in 1923.

Tilden went on to win six consecutive US Opens and few would bet against Federer, 26, matching that run.

“I think straight sets was a bit brutal for Novak, to be honest,” said Federer. “He deserved better than that. He’s had a fantastic run, not only this tournament but the entire year.”

2008
2008 US Open Final Roger Federer vs. Andy Murray 6-2 7-5 6-2

After a year that seemed rooted in agony and defeat, Roger Federer was in tip-top form winning his fifth straight US Open title and ending Andy Murray’s dreams of dancing down Broadway wearing his first Grand Slam crown.

Murray had hoped to become the first British man since Fred Perry in 1936 to win a major singles title, but he was outclassed by the man who owns the Big Apple.

Many believe that Federer and Andy Murray will meet in the finals again in 2009.

Federer rocketed to a 6-2 7-5 6-2 victory in one hour 51 minutes at Flushing Meadows, giving him his lucky thirteenth Grand Slam title – one fewer than held by American Pete Sampras

Federer joined Sampras and Jimmy Connors as a five-time winner of the U.S. title in the Open era.  Neither Sampras nor Connors won in five successive years; although fellow American Bill Tilden managed the feat in 1924.

Murray, playing in his first Grand Slam final, entered the match on the back of a first-ever win over world number one Rafael Nadal.

But Federer stepped up to the plate and took it to the lanky Scot whose confidence took a beating meeting the Swiss maestro on a court where he never lost.

Failure was no longer an option for Federer, having lost his number one ranking and his coveted Wimbledon crown.  He would take New York to steady his faltering ship.

Federer arrived on court with his best game in tow.  He had handed Djokovic a sound thrashing in the semifinals and Federer was ready to rumble.

Murray withstood a break point in game three; but he could not repeat the feat two games later.  Delivering a double fault and two errors gave Federer the advantage.

As Federer moved out to 4-2 scoring with a tremendous forehand volley on the dead run, Federer’s confidence owned the house.  A barrage of winning forehands forced another break of serve in game seven.  The set was over in 26 minutes.

Federer opened the second set with an outrageous cross-court forehand in the first game breaking Murray and going up 2-0.  He was not letting up on the Scot

But Murray had not fought so hard and waited so long to go out without firing a shot.  Federer’s level began to sag a bit in game three of set number two.

Murray let loose with a big cross-court forehand and a powerful backhand that the Swiss could not handle at the net, and the Scot finally won a break of serve.  Perhaps too little – too late.

Inevitably the relentless pressure applied by Federer reaped dividends when he broke to love to take the second set in game 12, with a lunging backhand volley, then a successful chip and charge, followed by a thorough smash and a running pass.

Federer, sensing the finish line, turned up the heat another notch – providing irresistible drama as he swept into a 5-0 lead in the third set.

Murray scrambled back and managed to cut the deficit with his second break of the day; but it only put off the inevitable.  Finally Federer put the British number one out of his misery on his second championship point, winning an epic rally with a smash that Murray could not return.

“I had a great tournament but I came up against, in my opinion, the best player ever to play the game today,” said Murray.

JA Allen is a regular contributor to Sports Then and Now.

Kim Clijsters

(10) Kim Clijsters

The Belgian blonde is making a comeback after a brief stint at stay-at-home motherhood.  Impatience is often the calling card for some young women when the drive to “settle down, get married and raise a family” supplants reason.

Let’s face it – women generally have fewer years than men to make their mark in athletics.  They peak younger and age faster than their male counterparts, on average.    This explains why on May 6, 2007, at age 23, after several bouts with injuries, Clijsters announced her official retirement from tennis.

She married and gave birth to her daughter on February 27, 2008.  Like Lindsay Davenport, before her, common sense returned.  Tennis, she realized, would not wait.  It was now or never.  Unlike Davenport, however, Clijsters comeback occurred when she was 25.  Davenport was 31.

In Cincinnati she made it all the way to the quarterfinals before losing to world number one ranked Dinara Safina.  At the Roger’s Cup, Clijsters met and upset rising star Victoria Azarenka in the second round.  She fell in the third round to Jelena Jankovic in three sets 6-1, 3-6, 5-7.

Clijsters has a wild card into the U.S. Open.  She is a former number one-ranked player in singles and doubles; but she was never a comfortable holder of that ranking – close but never quite secure on the top rung.  Clijsters constantly felt the pressure in competing with Lindsay Davenport, Justine Henin, Maria Sharapova and the Williams sisters.

But right now Davenport and Henin are gone; Maria Sharapova is fighting her way back trying to adjust to an abbreviated service motion and the Williams sisters are committed only part-time to the tour.  Venus is edging toward thirty and Serena is peaking.  So why not?  Clijsters game may hit its stride and her experience may strike a blow and give those struggling youngsters a stable target…

(9) Sam Querrey

Currently ranked #23, Sam Querrey is an icon, a symbol of all the promise waiting to be fulfilled for American tennis.  Since the days of Andre Agassi and Pete Sampras, American tennis failed to live up to its expectations.

Sam Querrey

Andy Roddick has fought valiantly to make it to the top and he achieved that vaunted position for a short time at the end of 2003 and early 2004 before Roger Federer seized the top of the men’s game for his own and held it for over 4 years.

So we have singles players like James Blake, Mardy Fish, Robby Ginepri, Vince Spadea, and now Sam Querrey who periodically pique the curiosity and interest of American tennis fans and media.

This year’s entry into the press poll is Querrey who has had some real success leading into the U.S. Open.  In January he made it to the final of the Heineken Open in Auckland, New Zealand where he lost to Juan Martin del Potro in straight sets 6-4, 6-4.

He made it to the finals of the Campbell’s Hall of Fame Tennis Championships in Newport, Rhode Island where he lost to Rajeev Ram 6-7, 7-5, 6-3.  At Indianapolis Querrey again made it to the final losing to fellow American Robby Ginepri 6-2, 6-4.  Finally at the LA Tennis Open, Querrey won defeating Carsten Ball to win his first final of the year.

This summer Querrey has shown promise, real promise.  The question remains, will his light burn bright but briefly like other Americans, or will he take off and light our fire…

(8) Maria Sharapova

The long-legged Russian beauty and former world number one is zeroing in on the U.S. Open.  She wants another grand slam trophy to add to her current trio.   After suffering with a rotator cuff tear in 2008, Sharapova dropped out of tennis and underwent surgery to repair the damage.   At the end of 2008 she had been ranked world no. 9 and when she returned she was ranked 126.

Maria Sharapova

Ten months later at a clay court tournament in Warsaw, Sharapova began her long climb back to the top of the women’s game.  Starting back on clay and trying to work on a new abbreviated service motion, Sharapova suffered from a lack consistency and stamina, although she did much better than many expected.

She lost in the quarterfinals in Warsaw and at the 2009 French Open astounded everyone by making it to the quarterfinals.  This rocketed her ranking to number 60.

At the AEGON Classic in Birmingham, a warm-up for Wimbledon, she lasted until the semifinals but faded early at Wimbledon, losing in the second round.

On the hard courts Sharapova made it to the quarterfinals at Stanford and in Los Angeles she made it to the semifinals.  Her ranking moved up to number 49.  But at the Rogers Cup in Toronto, Sharapova fought her way into the finals after defeating Nadia Petrova, Sybille Bammer, Vera Zvonareva, Agnieszka Radwanska and Alisa Kleybanova before facing Elena Dementieva in the finals.  She lost that final 6-4, 6-3.

Sharapova’s rank sits now at number 30 and she is seeded number 29 at the U.S. Open.  She won the U.S. Open in 2006 and she wants another title to seal her return to the top of the women’s game…

(7) Andy Roddick

Everyone wants to see what happens the next time Andy Roddick stares down the barrel targeting another grand slam showdown.  After losing the 2009 Wimbledon final to Roger Federer by blinking once – losing his serve for the first time in set 5, game number 38, Roddick set the tennis world ablaze considering the “what ifs” of the upcoming U.S. Open.  What if Roddick is in Federer’s quarter?

Andy Roddick

Well it turns out that Roddick is in Novak Djokovic’s quarter and can only face Federer in the semifinals – and not the finals this time.  Roddick has made it into the last eight in three of the last five U.S. Opens.  He was, in fact, the last American to win this title and that was back in 2003.

As far as Roddick is concerned, the defeat at Wimbledon was an endorsement that his game is going in the right direction.  Yes, it was tough to lose after being so close; but he played Federer tough and never lost his nerve or his serve until that final game.

Roddick once again will be the favorite son going into New York.  The New Yorkers will be behind him and he will be heavily featured in the night matches where the crowd gets up on its haunches and howls…

(6) Dinara Safina

Being ranked number one in the world isn’t everything it’s cracked up to be.  Just ask Dinara Safina who finds herself constantly defending her ranking.  Safina became the number one ranked player in the world on April 20, 2009, and immediately began to feel the heat because she had never won a major.

Dinara Safina

She was the runner up this year in Melbourne at the Australian Open, losing decisively in the finals to Serena Williams.  In Paris at the French Open she seemed a shoe-in but lost to Svetlana Kuznetsova in the finals.  She was a semi-finalist at Wimbledon.  Safina did, however, win back to back clay court titles in Rome and Madrid.

But Serena Williams, currently ranked world number two has won both the Australian Open and Wimbledon and if she also wins the U.S. Open, it will be hard to swallow if she is not also accorded the number one ranking.  Safina has her ranking and her reputation on the line at this year’s U.S. Open.  She needs to win this one to make her stay at the top less controversial – the time is now…

(5) Novak Djokovic

In 2007 most tennis pundits felt Djokovic would supplant Roger Federer at the top of the men’s game in due time.  He had enjoyed a splendid summer on the hard courts.  He won the Roger’s Cup in Montreal by beating the top three ranked players in the world- number three Roddick, number two Rafael Nadal and number one ranked Roger Federer.

Novak Djokovic

No one was surprised, therefore, when Djokovic made it all the way to the finals of the Open.  He lost to Roger Federer but not before holding seven set points in the first two sets.  In the end he lost in straight sets to Federer.

But in 2008 Djokovic captured his first grand slam victory down under at the Australian Open.  He defeated Federer in straight sets during the semifinals.  Most were certain that Djokovic would continue his rise by overtaking first Nadal as the current number two player and then Federer as world number one.

But it never happened.  Djokovic has receded into the background during discussions of the top four.  He has failed to consistently show the fire power that he displayed in winning his first major victory.  There are other players now nipping at his heels.  Unless Djokovic finds a way to make his mark at the U.S. Open this year, you have to wonder just how long he will manage to stay in the top four…

Elena Dementieva

(4) Elena Dementieva

She’s the talk of the town of late – Dementieva – who built her game serve-less or rather with a serve that often deserted her during times of stress.  Additionally, she found it difficult to close out a match, very often involved in a third set before she secured another hard-won victory.

Dementieva is athletic with a fierce forehand that she hits flat and hard, moving quickly to the ball at times faster than her opponents realize.

Currently ranked number four, Dementieva’s star is on the rise after her fiercely fought contest against Serena Williams at 2009 Wimbledon in the longest women’s semifinal in the history of the open era.  After winning the Roger’s cup in Toronto, Dementieva heads into New York as the leader in the U.S Open Series.

More than anything else, however, there is a revitalized spirit in Elena Dementieva.  Her serve is vastly improved and it does not fail her as often as it once did.  She does not quit and as her opponents will testify, she is never out of a point.  Winning the U.S. Open is definitely within the realm of her possibilities in 2009…

(3) Andy Murray

The weight of expectation is almost as intense on Andy Murray, now both seeded and ranked number two, as it was at Wimbledon.  At Wimbledon, Murray carried the weight of a nation on his shoulders.  In New York, Murray must hoist the mighty weight of promise unfulfilled.

Andy Murray

Even with his falling fortunes, Novak Djokovic has at least won a major.  Andy Murray has not.  He has reached one grand slam final last year in New York – where he lost in straight sets to Roger Federer, who owns the Big Apple.  With so much pressure to win, it becomes almost impossible to do so – just ask Dinara Safina who has failed in three grand slam attempts.

Murray must potentially slug his way past the killer serving of Ivo Karlovic in order to meet number nine seeded Gilles Simon of France.  Should he survive, waiting in the wings might be number 6 seed Juan Martin del Potro.  All of this, of course, on his way to a potential match up with number three seed Rafael Nadal.

Since this is the last major of the season, Andy Murray needs to bring it on home!

(2) Rafael Nadal

Not since July of 2005 has Rafael Nadal not been seeded one or two at a grand slam tournament.  This year in New York, Nadal is seeded three and is on the same side of the draw as Andy Murray.  He has a rough road ahead because he has no easy entrance into the draw.

Rafael Nadal

Nadal starts off by facing Richard Gasquet whose suspension for cocaine use was overturned.  Gasquet who was ranked as high as number seven in the world is a tough opener for the Spaniard who is still recovering from tendonitis in both knees.  If he gets through the opener he might conceivably face Jo Wilfried Tsonga on his way to facing Murray in the semifinals.

For the next two weeks the tennis world will be riveted on the action anxious to see if Nadal can recapture his form and come all the way back in New York.  Will the U.S. Open be the beginning of the end for the mighty Nadal or will it truly provide a stepping stone back to his path to the top again?

Those who sell Nadal short or count him out too easily have not really studied the young man’s fortitude or ambition.  He got to the top with perseverance and dedication.  2009 has proven to be disappointing; but in reality it may prove to be just a brief setback for the Nadal camp…

(1) Roger Federer

After winning the French Open for the first time – ever – in 2009, Federer completed his own career grand slam making him one of six men to have accomplished this phenomenal feat.  Federer followed this up by recapturing the Wimbledon crown for the sixth time. He holds 15 grand slam titles in all, the most of any male player.

Roger Federer

If he wins the U.S. Open in 2009, it will give Federer 6 consecutive championships, tying a record established by Bill Tilden back in the 1920s.   Every time he takes the court from this point forward, he sets another record.

It is this compelling storyline that keeps us all glued to the television or to the courts watching history being made each moment he is on court and each time he hits the ball across the net for a winner.

Will he win again?  The draw looks favorable with James Blake, Lleyton Hewitt or even the big hitting Swede, Robin Soderling.  Federer has winning records against them all.  His quarterfinal match would be against Nikolay Davydenko before meeting Djokovic in the semifinals.

Not many are betting against Roger Federer in this year’s U.S. Open…

JA Allen is a regular contributor to Sports Then and Now.