Sports Then and Now

No. 5: Robin Soderling

Swede Robin Soderling is "red hot" coming into the 2011 Australian Open.

The Swede made a name for himself by pulling off the biggest upset in the history of men’s tennis, in many people’s estimation.

This occurred when Soderling dismissed Rafael Nadal in the fourth round of the French Open in 2009.

It stunned Nadal and his fans when this upstart from Sweden stopped Nadal from winning his fifth consecutive French Open title.

Based on his play at the French and subsequent tournaments, Soderling rose into the men’s top ten at the end of 2009 and has remained there since that time.

Currently ranked world No. 4, Soderling will be seeded No. 4 as the 2011 Australian Open gets underway on January 17th. The odds on his winning have risen to 20-1.

But the Swede has never done well at the Australian Open.  In fact, he has never progressed beyond the second round.

Much of this has to do with the number of serious injuries Soderling has endured over the years since he broke into the men’s tour.

Even when he played, however, Soderling was plagued with nagging shoulder and knee problems.  This kept the Swede from playing his best. The lack of complete health lasted through 2008.

In 2009, Soderling began to find success and score victories on tour.

Even though he lost early to an unseeded Marcos Baghdatis at the 2009 Australian Open, Soderling made it to the finals of the French Open where he lost to Roger Federer.

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The 2011 Australian Open gets underway on Monday, January 17 in Melbourne

The Australian Open begins on Monday, Jan. 17, in Melbourne, Australia.

The draw for the first Grand Slam of the season will not be held until Friday, Jan. 14.

Until that time, no one will know who they will be facing in the first round or which potential opponents might be waiting down the road.

According to oddsmakers, Rafael Nadal is slightly favored to win the title over Roger Federer.

So what do these betting gurus know?

They know about past patterns of behavior and predictable outcomes based on certain incontrovertible factors. They know about odds of winning.

“Beating the odds” means winding up with an unexpected outcome.

This is the crux of betting—figuring out which players may beat the odds.

Nothing is a given, although based on recent history it is not unreasonable to expect either Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal to win the championship in Melbourne.

It is almost inevitable that one of them will be in the final.

But that did not happen in 2008, and who is to say that 2011 could not repeat that aberration?

According to this author’s research, following are the 10 players with the best shot at winning in Melbourne…

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Nadal prepares another run at Federer records in 2011.

The 2011 tennis season is under way, and already the tennis world has zeroed in on the biggest game in town—potential showdowns between the No. 1 and No. 2-ranked players in the world, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer respectively.

They are both facing some stiff competition in Doha at the Qatar ExxonMobil Open as the final eight head into quarterfinal action.

With the return to action of Juan Martin del Potro and the constant presence of Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, the rampant speculation about 2011 continues for the men.

For the ladies, the strange absence of the Williams sisters on tour leaves many questions about who will rise up and seize this season by the throat early on.

New No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki has yet to win a major. Will she this year? If she falters and fails, who might secure the No. 1 ranking?

The women’s game remains wide open until or if the Williams sisters return.

This brings us to 2011 and our top 10 predictions for the upcoming season.

No. 1: Someone other than Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer will win a major this year.

Will Novak Djokovic capture his second Slam trophy?

It is time for one of the top 10 to break the stranglehold and take away a major trophy.

Marat Safin won one in 2005 at the Australian Open, Novak Djokovic also won at the Australian Open in 2008 and Juan Martin del Potro denied Federer his sixth consecutive US Open title by taking it for himself in 2009.

But either Federer or Nadal has won the Wimbledon championship since 2003. Similarly, either Nadal or Federer has won the French Open since 2005.

Usual Suspects

World No. 3 Novak Djokovic

The Serb won the Australian Open in 2008, defeating Federer in the semifinals and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the finals. Since then, Djokovic has appeared in the semifinals of the French in 2007 and 2008, the semifinals of Wimbledon in 2007 and 2010 and the finals of the US Open in 2007 and 2010. Hard courts seem to be his best surface. A repeat down under?

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Federer and Nadal have met in three times in Wimbledon finals.

By now tennis fans are so used to the status quo that anytime Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal does not win a slam, the airwaves crackle with speculation.

Since 2003 Roger Federer has won 16 slam titles. The Swiss began with one title in 2003 at Wimbledon and ended with one title in 2010 at Melbourne, averaging almost three a year in the intervening years.

The news is usually when Federer is NOT in a grand slam final. He has won four Australian Open titles, one French Open championship, six titles at Wimbledon and five consecutive titles at the U.S. Open from 2004-2008.  He had appeared in 23 consecutive semifinals until Robin Soderling stopped that record at the French Open in 2010 during the quarterfinals.

Twenty-four year-old Rafael Nadal who won his first French Open title in 2005 has now won five titles at Stade Roland Garros. In 2010 Nadal captured a career grand slam when he won the U.S. Open for the first time.

In addition to five French Open titles and one U.S. Open championship, Nadal has captured Wimbledon twice in 2008 and 2010 and the Australian Open once in 2009.  Nadal owns nine grand slam trophies.

That leaves little room for anyone else.  This iron grip on majors is quite unusual in the history of the sport.  True, other players have dominated, but not for such an extended period. If we look back at the years since the Open Era began, you begin to see how extraordinary the dominance of the current No. 1 and No. 2 ranked players has been.

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Pete Sampras Vs. Boris Becker in 1996 ATP finals.

In 1990 the ATP World Tour Championships moved from Madison Square Garden in New York City to Germany, home of native tennis phenoms Boris Becker and Steffi Graf.

New York City was vacated, bowing to the wishes of the German tennis hierarchy to move the year-end tournament to Frankfurt––offering more convenience to Europeans on tour. Madison Square Garden had served as home of the “Masters Grand Prix,” as it was then known, from 1977 through 1989.

After six years, the tournament moved from Frankfort to Hanover where it was played on carpet.  Pete Sampras entered the 1996 year-end finals as the top seed while the German Boris Becker was seeded No. 6.

No one suspected the level of drama that would unfold in the final match for the championship. The German contingent, of course, hoped that Becker would do well and make the ATP final so the stands would be packed.

So far in 1996, Sampras had lost once in nine finals, ironically to Becker in Stuttgart one month prior to this tournament. Also  of note––during the year Sampras had captured one major––the 1996 U.S. Open.

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The top 8 qualifiers for the Tennis Masters Cup in Shanghai.

In 2005 the venue for the Tennis Masters Cup Final—the ATP’s year-end championship—moved to Shanghai from Houston.

Awarding China the honor of hosting the event was a coup—a great step forward in promoting professional tennis to millions of new tennis fans.

The Chinese, increasingly enamored of men’s professional tennis, especially the play of Roger Federer,  the current world No. 1, felt pride in providing the best possible environment for the players.

Problems, however, facing the ATP and the sponsors of the event to be held in Qi Zhong City Arena for the first time had nothing to do with the Arena or any physical accommodations.

As the tournament neared, No. 2 Rafael Nadal pulled out of the competition following the withdrawal of No. 3 Andy Roddick—both citing injuries.

Also sidelined for the event was No. 4 Lleyton Hewitt.  No. 5 Andre Agassi along with Marat Safin, winner of the 2005 Australian Open, also pulled out of the round robin competition.

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